Crisis Briefing

Middle East War & What It Means For Us

ACTIVE CONFLICT HIGH IMPACT

Prepared March 11, 2026

Scroll

What's Happening

Feb 28, 2026 changed everything.

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed on March 1. The region has been at war for two weeks.

Casualties
0
killed across the region
Displaced
0
in Lebanon alone
Duration
0
and escalating

Timeline

Feb 28 — US & Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities
Mar 1 — Khamenei confirmed killed
Mar 2 — Hezbollah launches missiles on northern Israel
Mar 3 — Israel invades Lebanon
Mar 4-8 — Houthis resume Red Sea attacks; Hormuz stalls
Mar 9 — Brent spikes to $120/barrel; global selloff
Mar 10-11 — Second week of war. No ceasefire.

Shipping Routes Disrupted

Strait of Hormuz
0
20% of global seaborne oil — stalled
Cape Rerouting
0
+10-14 days transit time

~20% of global crude & gas supply suspended

10-14 day buffer before full impact

Probability & Scenarios

Three paths forward — and what each means.

Quick End
35-40%
Prolonged
40-45%
Full Escalation
15-20%
Timeline
~3 mo
ceasefire by June
Oil by Q3
<$80
per barrel
Peso
~57-58
recovers
  • International pressure forces ceasefire
  • Shipping lanes reopen. PH fuel prices stabilize.
  • OFWs safe; remittances resume normal flow
  • End-2026 oil: ~$70/bbl (EIA); Goldman says $60
Duration
6-12 mo
no end in sight
Oil
$95+
sustained
Peso
60+
weakens further
  • Diesel stays above P80/L; inflation hits 3.5%+
  • OFW deployments frozen; some repatriated
  • Government burns reserves on subsidies
  • BSP forced to raise interest rates
Trigger
Hormuz
fully closed
Oil
$150
or higher
Diesel
P100+
possible rationing
  • Inflation surges past 5%; food crisis looms
  • Mass OFW evacuation — C-130 on standby
  • Peso collapses past 62/USD
  • Full austerity mode nationwide

Signals to Watch

SignalQuick EndProlongedEscalation
Ceasefire talksProgressingStalledCollapsed
HormuzOpenIntermittentBlocked
Brent crudeBelow $85$90-100Past $120
OFW alertDowngradedLevel 2-3Level 4
Iran responseLimitedProxy warDirect attack

Effects on the Philippines

Among the worst-impacted countries globally.

100% of raw crude from Middle East

36% of CPI basket is oil-price sensitive

Fuel Prices 11 WEEKS UP

Gasoline Peak
0
Diesel Peak
0
Kerosene
+P38/L

Gov't response: 10-20% mandatory reduction in gov't fuel use. P52.8B emergency budget proposed.

Peso at Record Weakness P59.5/USD

Current
P59.5
record low
Watch
P60
barrier
Crisis
P62+
cost spiral
  • Weaker peso = everything imported costs more
  • PH imports $38.22B from China alone (28.6%)
  • Amplifies oil shock — we pay in dollars

Food Inflation Doubled 2.3x IN 1 MONTH

Jan 2026
0.7%
Feb 2026
1.6%
Forecast
3.2%+
  • Overall inflation: 2.4% (up from 2.0%)
  • Poorest households: 2.5% — hit hardest
  • Could breach 3.5-4% if oil stays high

2.4 Million OFWs at Risk $6.48B REMITTANCES

In Middle East
0
40% of all OFWs
Remittances
$6.48B
~P380B (2025)
Requesting
0
repatriation
  • Level 3 Iraq, Lebanon — forced repatriation
  • Level 2 Iran, Israel, West Bank
  • C-130 aircraft on standby for mass evacuation

Supply Chain — 2x Shipping Rates +14 DAYS

  • Container rates doubled on key routes
  • Cape rerouting adds 10-14 days
  • Electronics, garments, processed food, furniture affected
  • 10% oil price increase = 60bp current account deterioration

Effects on Maricel

Your exposure across all roles. Tap each to expand.

Insurance Business OPPORTUNITY

Counter-cyclical: when people are afraid, they buy insurance. This crisis is your sales accelerator.

Target SegmentWhy NowProduct
OFW familiesBreadwinner in war zoneLife, accident, health
Small business ownersRising costsBusiness interruption
Tech-voc students' familiesJob market uncertaintyLife, savings
Sugar industry workersVolatile fuel + commodityLife, savings
Chinese-Filipino biz ownersTrade disruptionsBusiness insurance

Master Global (TESDA Tech-Voc) AT RISK

TESDA-funded = free/minimal fees, so enrollment stays stable. But rising operational costs squeeze margins. Watch TESDA budget continuity.

ScenarioInflationImpactYour Move
Moderate3%TESDA coversHold, cut costs
Severe4%+Budget strainedPush efficiency
Extreme5%+Funding gapsDiversify or exit

Board meeting agenda:

  • Operational cost projections under 3% & 5% inflation
  • Energy cost-cutting: solar, LED conversion
  • TESDA funding outlook — risk of cuts?
  • Revenue diversification: corporate training, rentals, workshops

Family Grocery Store MONITOR

Monitor only — family manages daily operations.

  • Ask: how are margins? Any supply issues?
  • Are they adjusting prices to match wholesale?
  • Chinese-Filipino network for early import disruption intel

Personal Finance CAUTION

Advantage: Single, no dependents = flexible.

  • Target: 6-month emergency fund
  • Keep some savings in USD (peso weakening)
  • No new debt — preserve cash for farming
  • Lock variable-rate loans to fixed
  • Is your money earning above 2.4% inflation?

What To Do

Concrete actions from this week to long-term.

Insurance Sales Pivot

  • Lead with: "Are your family's finances protected if prices keep rising?"
  • Target OFW families in Negros Occidental
  • Tie insurance to Master Global students & families

Master Global Assessment

  • How are rising utility/supply costs affecting ops?
  • TESDA funding status — any delays?
  • Enrollment pipeline — your equity depends on throughput

Cash Position Check

  • How many months of expenses liquid?
  • Is your money earning above 2.4% inflation?

Go Digital, Save Fuel

  • Zoom/Viber for client consultations instead of driving
  • Social media: "Protect your family during uncertain times"
  • Saves fuel AND scales reach beyond Bacolod

Stockholder Advocacy

  • Operational cost projections at board meeting
  • Energy cost-cutting proposals
  • Revenue diversification: corporate training, rentals

Start Researching Farming

  • Free TESDA / DA-Negros training sessions
  • Connect with ONOPRA (Organic Negros Producers)

Sustainable Farming Pilot

Option A: Mushrooms

Best for part-time

  • Startup: P10K-20K
  • Space: 1-2 sqm
  • ROI: 162-191%
  • P110K-308K/year
Option B: Vegetables

Low-cost, fast

  • Startup: P5K-15K
  • Harvest: 40-80 days
  • Best: P260K/ha
  • Eggplant, okra, pechay

Farming becomes more profitable when food prices rise

5-Year Farm Scale-Up

YearActivityEst. Income
Year 1Mushrooms + vegetablesP200K-500K
Year 2+ moringa (81% margin)P500K-800K
Year 3+ cacao (77.89% ROI)P800K-1.2M
Year 5Full farm + organic premiumP1M-2M
Long-term targets
  • 0.5-1 hectare near Bacolod (check DAR programs)
  • Moringa orchard: 200-400 trees, drought-tolerant
  • Organic certification: 20-30% price premium
  • Value-added: moringa powder, dried mushrooms, cacao nibs

Insurance + Farming = Crisis-Proof Combo

Bad Economy

People buy insurance out of fear

Your sales go UP

Food Prices Rise

Farming becomes more profitable

Your income goes UP

Key Numbers to Track

Diesel P/L
~P78
Watch P85 Crisis P95+
PHP / USD
59.5
Watch 60 Crisis 62+
Inflation
2.4%
Watch 3.0% Crisis 4%+
Brent $/bbl
$88
Watch $100 Crisis $120+
Insurance Sales
Baseline
Watch Flat Crisis -15%
Master Global
Stable
Watch -5% Crisis -15%

Your Unique Advantages

  • Single, no dependents — max flexibility, lower burn rate
  • Insurance license — counter-cyclical income
  • Chinese-Filipino network — supply chain intel
  • Master Global — TESDA-funded = stable enrollment for leads
  • Negros Occidental — prime agricultural land
  • Multiple income streams — diversified before farming

Low Cash Doesn't
Mean Low Power

"You don't need money to start — you need information, timing, and the right moves."

You have the information now.

The timing is this week.

The right moves are in your hands.

Crisis Briefing • March 11, 2026 • DOE, BSP, PSA, POEA, EIA, Reuters